Econ 1012 : Principles Of Assessment Answers

Comment on its growth rates over the period of last ten years 
Critically analyze the reasons for the variation of growth rates in that time period 
What are the major challenges Australia faces in enhancing its growth rates in about 

Answer:

ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE OF AUSTRALIA (2008-2018)

Predominantly, the Australian Gross domestic product has declined in the recent years. However, prior to the decline in economic performance, the Australian economy experienced steady growth. However due to global factors such as fall in commodity prices and the global financial crisis are partly responsible for the variance in the Australian economy. Particularly, the Australian gross domestic product dropped between the year 2008 and 2009, from $1.55 trillion to 927.168 million respectively .However, the economy grew from the year 2009 to the year 2010 illustrated by$ 927.168 million to $1.143 trillion. There was steady economic growth between 2010 and 2013.Specifically, as at the year 2011, the Australian gross domestic product stood at 1.391 trillion and 1.538 trillion in 2012 and 1.567 trillion in the year 2013 respectively. However, Australia’s economic growth has been declining since the year 2013.In 2014, the  Australian economic value was 1.46 trillion,1.345 trillion in  the year 2015 and USD %1.205 trillion in the year 2016(World bank Group 2018).There was a slight growth in the Australian economy between July 2016 and January 2017 by 0.1% from 0.8 to 0.9 % respectively(Trading Economics ,2018).Also, between the months of January and July 2017, the Australian gross domestic product decreased from 0.9% to 0.8% respectively.

In addition, Since January, through July, the Australian economic growth rate have been declining due to various internal and global reasons. As illustrated in the below figure, economic growth of the Australian economy  decreased from 0.9 percent  in the month of  January to 0.8 percent  in the month of  July and 0.4% in the month of January 2018.This figures go to show there is a decline in the growth of the Australian gross domestic product. The Australian economy in the year 2018 is yet to experience substantial growth due to the employment, low wage rates, low commodity prices and the decline of the mining industry which is experiencing low investment rates and low demand. All these factors have contributed to the decline of the Australian economic performance .However, economic forecasting are positive on the potential of economic growth.

 

                                                                                    (Trading Economics, 2018)(Fig.1).

REASONS FOR THE ECONOMIC GROWTH BETWEEN 2008 -18

Immensely, the growth of the Chinese economy has contributed to the growth and expansion of the Australian economy. Primarily, China massive demand for raw materials has been fulfilled by the Australia’s availability of natural resources (Charlton 2015).The Chinese economy is one of Australia’s top trading partners. Due to the fast growing nature of the Chinese economy, the demand for raw materials is being supplied for by Australia thus increased exportation volume of raw materials to the Chinese economy resulting into increased revenue for the Australian economy.Predominantly,Australian major exports to China are Iron and core which are key to the Chinese economy. There are assertions as to the fast growing economic dominance of the Chinese economy hanging over the United States of America economic prowess. The fact that the Australian nation is endowed with abundance of natural resources has made the demand for its raw materials higher thus translating into huge exportation revenue to China and other Asian economies. Also, due to the large population and emerging dominance of the Chinese global in international trade, Australia gets to enjoy a wider demand and market for its natural resources.

MINING BOOM

Undeniably, the positive effects of the mining boom on the Australian economy cannot be overlooked. The mining boom is responsible for raising the Australian wage rate and reducing the unemployment percentage in the Australian economy (Downes, Hanslow & Tulip, 2014).Also, the mining fortune is responsible for the appreciation of the Australian dollar. The foreign exchange rate of the Australian dollar went up thereby leading to increased revenue due to the growth in the Australian mining industry. In addition, there was an upsurge in the employment opportunities due to the increased investment in the mining sector by domestic and foreign investors. The increased investment opportunities lead to increased economic living standards among the employed Australian population. The mining surge effects included the appreciation of the Australian dollar which meant higher revenue for tis exports and foreign exchange transactions. Also, more employment opportunities were created in the sector and other supporting industries. The high commodity prices boosted the housing and construction sector performance which lead to a significant growth in the Australian gross domestic product. The effects of the boom on the Australian economy were mainly positive impacts as compared to negative impacts.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

Notably, the global financial Crisis effects on the Australian economy were less adverse as contrasted with other economies (ABS, 2010).Primarily, the Australian financial sector is considered resilient due to the fact that there has been no need for the Australian banks to require financial assistance from its government. The financial performance of Australian financial institutions has been relatively profitable since the crisis in 2009 as contrasted to other European nations. Australian banking institutions have enjoyed fixed interest rates despite the global economic crisis (Debelle,2009). Moreover, Australian banks share pricing reduced as a consequence of the global economic crisis (Fig 2).However, there was a reduction in the equity pricing (Fig 3).The reduction in equity prices causes a 10% income deduction in Australian household. In addition, the Australian dollar depreciated by 30 % as a consequence of the global crisis.

                                                                                                     Fig.2 (Debelle, 2009)                                                                       

                                                                Fig 3     (Debelle, 2009)

POLICY RESPONSE

 Following the global economic crisis it was necessary that the Australian government implement various fiscal and monetary policies to grow its economy. Noteworthy, the Australian Reserve bank did reduce the interest rate by a hundred basis points (Kennedy, 2009).In addition, the Australian government guaranteed the deposits in its banking system at a fee which was the first implementation of such a policy in the Australian history. Also, a financial injection of USD10.4 billion was injected into the financial sector as a stimulus package to support the housing sector, pensioners, low income households and training facilities in an effort to stabilize the economy and the financial sector in Australia. There was implemented discretionary fiscal policies to ensure financial stability in the country. Additional stimulus package of USD42 billion (Nation building and jobs plan) was introduced to boost the Australian economic performance. Through the two stimulus packages, there was increased economic activity in Australia which lead to a substantive reduction in the rates of unemployment (Chhabra, 2009).The fiscal policy is responsible for stimulating economic activity in Australia following the financial crisis that crippled the global economy. The fact that the Australian economy wasn’t adversely affected by the global economic crisis is because of its strong financial structure.

POST MINING BOOM ERA IN AUSTRALIA

Notably, the decline of the mining boom, has left negative challenges in its wake. The Australian economic growth rate is likely to slow down as due to the slow mining activity. In addition, there is reduced revenue from exportation of products to the Chinese economy due to the dwindling demand for minerals. Currently, mining companies are facing harsh economic times due to reduced investment and low global commodity prices which has led to massive loss of employment in the industry (Yoemans,2016).The Australian economic performance after the decline of the mining activity has not been adversely affected(Kent, 2016).There has been reduced investment in the mining industry which has slightly weakened the  growth of the nominal gross domestic product.in addition, there has been a slight decrease in the labor participation rates in the Australian economy(Fig 4).However, the Victorian state economic activity has decreased by 0.4%(Uren ,2016).In addition, there is a decline  in the employment gap according to the Australian Bureau Statistics. Despite the declined economic growth in Victoria, Tasmania‘s economic performance has grown by 1.1. %.Relatively, the Australian trade terms and commodity prices have declined after the mining boom (Fig 5.).

Primarily, after the boom in the mining sector, various Australian sectors are improving. Specifically, the housing sectors performance is on the rise due to the increased foreign level of investment in the construction industry and the previously high commodity prices during the boom (Bramble, 2015).Alongside the rising housing and construction sectors of the Australian economy, employment rates are slightly improving. After the boom, other Australian industries such as agriculture, mining and the service industries have increased their economic contribution to the Australian economy. However, the economic value of the mining industry to the Australian gross domestic product has greatly decreased. There was increased household income during the mining boom due to the increased commodity prices and increased employment opportunities in the mining industry. In addition, there was increased government revenue from taxation of mining proceeds due to the increased rate of foreign and local investment into the sector and other supporting sectors in the Australian economy.

 

                                          Fig 5 (Bramble 2015)

CHALLENGES FACING ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA

  Notably, there is a youth unemployment challenge facing the Australian economic rate(Carvalho,2015).It is important that there are low unemployment rates in the country to effectively contribute to the economic growth of the country. The fact that most of the Australian youths are unemployed means that the economic potential of the Australian economy is being underutilized. High unemployment rates trigger more government expenditure in welfare programs which is expensive and burdensome for tax payers. It is imperative that the Australian economy overcomes the fall in commodity prices in order to boost its economic performance index (Fraser, 2015).It is imperative that the value of the Australian dollar appreciated due to its direct impact on the prices for commodities and services. Typically, low prices equal low revenue for the Australian economy hence the need for the Australian currency to grow stronger. In addition, there is need for the Australian economy to experience dollar appreciation. The depreciation of the dollar slows down the rate of economic growth in the long term. Also it is necessary that the Australian wage growth levels improve to support employment which in terms will lead to increased labor participation hence increase in revenue and economic livelihoods.

Regarding improving its business environment, it is vital that the Australian taxation systems be reformed as so to provide more investment incentives for local entrepreneurs and foreign investments. Chances look slimmer for wage growth in Australia (Clarke, 2018).Through the growth of the wage and salaries rackets, more persons are likely to seek employment thud boosting the economic performance of the Australian economy and companies. There is need for creation of more full time employment opportunities so as to increase the level of production which will in turn lead to revenue increase. Also the fact that most of Australia’s working population is the aging population raises the labor skill set gap which might slow down the rate of economic growth in Australia. In addition, the Australian government ought to address climatic changes and their impact on agriculture production and eco-system conservation (Treasury,2010).Despite the climatic challenges being a global concern issue, it is important that the Australian government address this concern on a domestic level so as to create real impact on its agricultural production which impacts on its exportation revenue. Owing to the dependable nature of agricultural sector on climatic conditions, it is important that the Australian agricultural farming practices be adaptable and mitigate the harsh weather changes.

In the event that the Australian economy is able to sustain a stronger dollar, the value of its commodities will increase thereby boosting the revenue for the economy. However, due to the weak Australian dollar, the economic value of Australian exports are valued lowly thus reduced revenue. In the event that more employment opportunities are created, there will be increased economic productivity and resource utilization which will boost the economic growth rate of the Australian economy. Further, the employment of a more youthful population will fill the aging employment which causes skill set shortages every so often. The Australian economy needs to overcome the climatic challenges that have curtailed maximum agricultural production due to the harsh weather conditions. All in all, the Australian economy performance is likely to pick up a steady growth pace in the event that the challenges are properly addressed sooner rather than later.

Reference:

ABS. (2010).The global financial crisis and its impact on Australia. Retrieved from https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/1301.0Chapter27092009%E2%80%9310

Bramble, T. (2015).The Australian economy after the mining boom. Retrieved from https://redflag.org.au/article/australian-economy-after-mining-boom

Carvarlho, P. (2015).Youth Unemployment in Australia. Retrieved from https://www.cis.org.au/app/uploads/2015/11/rr7-snapshot.pdf

Charlton, A. (2015).China’s rising impact on Australia’s economy. Retrieved from https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/australia-gdp-growth.png?s=aunagdpc&v=201803231519v   

Chhabra, V. (2009).RBA Economics Competition 2009.Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/education/talks-and-events/economics-competition/2009/pdf/first-year.pdf

Clarke, C. (2018, January 4).Low wages, High debts and housing bubble threaten the Australian economy in 2018.The ABC News. Retrieved from https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-04/australian-economy-threatened-by-low-wages-high-debts-bubble/9286048,

Debelle, G. (2009).Some effects of the global financial crisis on Australian Financial Markets. Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2009/sp-ag-310309.html

Downes, P, Hanslow, K & Tulip, P. (2014).The effect of the mining boom on the Australian Economy. Retrieved from https://rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2014/pdf/rdp2014-08.pdf

Fraser, J. (2015).The Australian economy and challenges of change. Retrieved from https://treasury.gov.au/speech/the-australian-economy-and-challenges-of-change/

Kennedy, S. (2009).Australia’s response to the global financial crisis .Retrieved from https://treasury.gov.au/speech/australias-response-to-the-global-financial-crisis/

Kent, C. (2016).After the Boom .Retrieved from https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/sp-ag-2016-09-13.html

Trading Economics. (2018).Australia GDP growth rate 1959-2018.Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth

Treasury. (2010).The economic outlook and challenges for the Australian economy. Retrieved from https://treasury.gov.au/publication/economic-roundup-issue-1-2010/economic-roundup-issue-1-2010/the-economic-outlook-and-challenges-for-the-australian-economy/

Uren, D. (2016, December 8).End of the mining boom” now being felt”. The Australian. Retrieved from https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/end-of-mining-boom-now-being-felt/news-story/fdf9acdc32267b30fa07dfd9aba1bdcb

World Bank Group. (2018).GDP (Current US$).Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=AU

Yeomens, J. (2016).Australia’s mining boom turns to dust as commodity prices collapse .Retrieved from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/12142813/Australias-mining-boom-turns-to-dust-as-commodity-prices-collapse.html