BSM2519 Oil and Gas Management : Structural Decomposition Analysis
1: The following question concerns the roles of the various organisations involved in the oil & gas industry.
Consider the roles and activities of a typical Operator/Duty holder, Investor and Equipment Vendor in the context of an offshore platform.
2: The following questions concerns petroleum economics and taxation regimes, legal arrangements and contractual relationships.
3: The following question concerns the risks faced by the industry and means of identifying and managing them.
Describe the various graphical and numerical simulation evaluation techniques used by oil and gas companies to help them understand the reservoir development risks that they face. Comment of the value and likely use of each technique
4: The following question concerns future oil and gas sources, social responsibility and climate change issues.
Identify and discuss the factors driving the continued annual growth in global energy consumption
Answer:
1: Identification of areas where parties objectives are aligned:
The operation team of duty holder is responsible for ensuring safety, management and maintenance of assets by supplying dedicated and high skilled personnel and tested and tried procedures and process. They supervise and handle performance management and straight forward supply manpower along with management and complete operations of assets. All such activities result in creation of partnership. It enables the client to act as operator of licence and supplying resources and time. Some of the assumed responsibilities that can be performed by duty holders are the service and operator of pipeline and wells. There is holistic operating model under UKCS legislation that combines the responsibilities of well operator, pipeline operator and duty holder (Kellan 2014).
Under this discussion, Petrofac, which is the United Kingdom based service provide for processing and production of oil and gas industry have been selected. British petroleum has awarded it a contract of duty holder for supporting late life management of Miller operation of North Sea in UK sector. Petrofac is responsible for activities for making transition of the Non producing Miller platform for British Petroleum and preparing it for the next phase of planned decommissioning and other offshore aspects. All the global operations of British Petroleum have been supported by Petrofac by way of extending the partnership. The partnership of British petroleum with Petrofac demonstrates strong alignment with the project driver of Miller decommissioning.
Petrofac is responsible for building, designing and operating oil and gas facilities that are delivered through or by incorporating range of innovative commercial model. They are responsible for transforming the value of the assets of British Petroleum across the gas and oil lifecycle. The activities of Petrofac and British petroleum are aligned in the areas of exploration of oil and gas production. Activities will enable the smooth transition and preparation of next phase of decommissioning of BP. The decommissioning of assets will be accelerated by leveraging existing knowledge of Petrofac and its acquaintance and experience with asset management team. Employees of Petrofac deployed on asserts have the knowledge, flexibility and skill set for delivering the activities that are in line with the requirement of British Petroleum (Le Fevre 2013). The contracting process and extensive marketing engagement of Petrofac are strongly aligned to miller decommissioning project drivers. Isolation valve sourcing scope on BP North sea assets and campaign maintenance are provided by Petrofac such that their activities are aligned with the activities of British petroleum. The strong working relationship of BP with Petrofac is evolving because the business objectives of the petroleum are aligned with the activities of service provider. They maintain strong focus on this aspect of delivery by recruiting local resources and engaging in local supply chain (Saad et al. 2014).
Petrofac as the responsible duty holder to BP has remained focused on increasing the value of clients’ assets and adding value by deployment of differentiated and innovative solutions. Executive project innovation and operational excellence are the main focus of service provider as duty holder. There are a number of core areas on which BP has deployed its activities. Such partnership with service operators has built strong cooperation tradition as they work cost efficiently in the basin. Petrofac has remained strong service led and for alignment they co invest for minority. Such service provider to the client or parties concerned may receive guarantee that they seek an aligned common interest in the production success of an asset of Petroleum (Schandl et al. 2016). Development of d
ecommissioning of assets in North Sea would be fuelled by Petrofac and this would help the organization in achieving their business. Therefore, from the above discussion, it can be said that there are several areas where the interest and activities of both the parties concerned are aligned so that they can respectively achieve their business objectives. The oil and gas industry explores in nits activities by receiving assistance as duty holder, equipment holder or investor from many companies providing service on offshore platform.
Areas of potential conflict and ways to overcome:
Some the potential conflicts that may be faced by the parties in an offshore platform mainly relates to environmental regulations. BP strictly adhering to environmental regulations may face conflicting issue with Petrofac if they are not aligning their activities with the maintenance of environmental regulations. The parties concerned on offshore platform calls for investment for undertaking the activities of their clients and this is characterised by irreversibility and significant costs (Ford et al. 2014). Such thing may lead to conflict in wish for greater competition and efficient use of resources.
Some of the conflict may arise from the profit oriented settings of duty holder where they compote for making huge turnover and drive their shift from safety to personnel and environment. Safety should not be undermining by such holders or service providers because the sustainability of the product and their service is guaranteed by that particular aspect. Conflict may arise between the service provider and their client due to safety concern.
There can be a risk of conflict between the client and service provider on sharing of risk and reward of any petroleum project in oil and gas industry and it is regarded as the fundamental conflict. The reason is attributable to the fact that both the parties want to shit the risk to other party as much as possible and maximizing their rewards. Trade off between the interests of each party can be improved by having right choice of fiscal regime.
Conflict may arise over guaranteeing of fair service fees and over price of resources that will be required to make the transformation in the assets. In this regard, a stable fiscal environment between both the parties should be encouraged. Developing the resources efficiently will help in guaranteeing the service fees and sharing of resources for making compatible and fair decisions. There can be possible conflict of interest arising from the role of client by aligning to regulations and the possibility of service provider for overseeing their social and environmental impact of project.
An oil and gas company can face the issue of abandonment and conflict arises due to using of production facilities and their removal with different techniques employed by companies also leads to arising of conflict.
Petrofac has been entrusted with the task of overseeing the holistic development oil and gas sector of British petroleum. They are also envisaged to be evolving as the technical regulatory body. If there is absence of statutory status, the power of Petrofac would be limited and this would reduce the effectiveness of their functioning. The independence and composition of members would also be questioned as they are mostly appointed on deputation of oil companies and their activities would fall under purview of the clients. This might lead to conflict between the oil companies operating in particular sector and the objectives of service providers. There can also be overlap between the provisions of respective parties and that may be the reason behind the conflict. Conflict can also arise due to personal interest of service providers and interest of companies (Ürge et al. 2015).
Conflicts can be resolved by the parties in accordance with the respective obligations established under then legislations or laws which both the parties need to be adhered to. Such conflict needs to be solved amicably. Conflict may arise due to increased instability and weaker governance of the either parties. In order to avoid conflict in such situation, it is required by companies to strengthen the institutional architecture of oil and gas relations with the service providers. Arrangement between the parties should be done on cooperative basis. The unhindered flow of resources that would avoid conflict between parties would requirement establishment of non-discriminatory, transparent band acceptable procedures and rules. The legal framework for regulation of practices in the oil and gas sector should be strengthening in order to avoid such conflicts. There should be a framework that would provide input to execution, designing and monitoring of the project between the parties. During the conflict among various functioning between the parties should be mediated and arbitrated (Van et al. 2017). The major source of conflict in the oil and gas industry is the absence of participatory and well-structured assessment process. Therefore, there should be development of well-structured assessment process of the service providers.
2 (a) There have been various countries who have implemented the Product Sharing Agreement (PSA) regime to govern the operations of oil and gas. It is seen that the major dissimilarity that develops with respect to the agreement of concession and PSA is the level of involvement among the states. In the program of PSA, it is seen that the state will be the owner of the whole production of oil and gas and therefore will have greater power and can even have more say on how the oil is filtered, manufactured and controlled. The oil corporations therefore behave like the contractors by giving out financial and technical services for the activities that are to be constructed (Heede 2014). It is due to these services that in return that the state shares the oil with the oil corporations who function in the geographical location of the state. The oil is shared according the amount of volume that has been agreed upon in the sharing agreement. The system of Product Sharing Agreement is one of the most efficient processes for the enhancing the host countries and the states as they gain increased returns as well as having the advantage of receiving additional control over the production and management of gas and oil (Goldemberg et al. 2014). The operational and the financial risks are even existent within the various oil corporations that are additional advantages for the host countries and it is seen that only a meagre negotiation cost is mislaid if something goes wrong during the operational activity.
On the contrary, it is explained that the fundamental elasticity of the Product Sharing Agreement being the document that contains all the relevant data and being the all-in-one agreement is even a shortcoming due to the fact that a interest or commission is bestowed upon the negotiations that take place professionally (Mitchell and Mitchell 2014). Accordingly the home state may have lower knowledge than the oil corporations, which acts as a vital damage for the developing countries that has inadequate resources with respect to the oil corporations that function in that country. Furthermore, despite the fact that host country will have the role of undertaking decisions, their inputs are very likely to be tedious and unskilled (Tordo et al. 2013). The relation between the host country and the oil and gas corporations are contractual in nature, but it is seen that the Product Sharing Agreement can be thought as harmful for the country by relying on the fact that they will frequently attach with the central government for several years without undertaking any transformations in the fiscal and regulation policies as they mine the oil and increase their profit. This initiation will aid the oil and gas corporations to forecast and maintain the balance and stability of their business activities and their infrastructure (Brandt et al. 2014).
It is seen that the main difference that is existent concession and the PSA is the association that is existent among the oil and gas corporations and the host state. It is seen that the host state still has the upper hand in the concessions agreements, but the association among the host state and the oil and gas corporations are discovered to be equal when both the parties enter into the PSA. Therefore, it is seen that PSA are more efficiently utilized by the countries that are still developing as the cost of extraction is high for these countries and thereby the risks associated with them are higher as well. Therefore, it is seen that it is more sensible to enter into a PSA as the oil and gas corporations will abstain from the process of production if the contract is not thought by them to be profitable (Melikoglu 2014). Despite the fact that the state can be attached to the PSA for a very long time, it is seen that it make more sagacity to undertake such agreements if they are to be exploited as an efficient equipment for undertaking foreign investment (Noreng 2016). An instance of this situation is seen in the PSA that Iraq hasd entered with the oil and gas corporations operating there. Although there are few researchers who would say that there was a loss of sovereignty by entering this agreement but there are other researchers who disagree to this fact and explain that the damages has mainly been as an outcome of the conflicts and not for PSA.
It is obvious as a whole that both the PSA and the concession agreement have various positives and negatives. However, it is seen that although concession agreements permits the host state to have increased supervision and control about the process of how the manufacturing and the management of the oil and gas are undertaken, PSA on the other hand have the ability to be more profitable and is more appropriate to the requirements of the developing countries (Hallett and Clark-Lowes 2016). It is has a clear evidence through the impacts that have taken place in Iraq after the PSA have initiated foreign investment that is to provided that therefore is a significant equipment for the countries who are still developing. Therefore, it is seen that without the use of foreign investments, the developing countries will not have the chance move ahead financially and economically and therefore, the importance of PSA over the government of these countries can be recognized. Nevertheless, it is seen that the host states with the use of PSA have very limited control over the manufacturing and the management of the oil and gas production processes and therefore it can be seen that this contract may not be always applicable for a developing or a developed country.
There are various other agreements that are seen available in the market that is similar to PSA. The analysis of PSA has revealed that the agreement has its advantages and disadvantages like any other agreements but one need to understand the whether this agreement is advantageous according to the needs of the country where it will be implemented. The negative aspect of PSA for a certain country may be fruitful for the other country (Venables 2016). With respect to the oil and gas industries it is seen that PSA contracts are appropriate and should be implemented as with the introduction of this agreement, the oil corporations along with the countries and the states will have the same authority and power to control and monitor the management and the production of oil. Therefore, the corporations will even have the power to monitor undertake changes if deemed necessary (Boussena . and Locatelli 2013). They will have the power to speak and if necessary can even construct new plans to make the production and the management more efficient. The state will not have enough power to intervene or construct a plan that can change the sharing ratio of the oil and thus PSA regime should be implemented as it will be beneficial for the state as well as the oil and gas industries.
2 (b)
|
Statement Showing IRR and NPV at different range of capital costs inflation | |||||||
|
Particular |
Year 0 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
Total |
|
Revenue |
|
$ 500.00 |
$ 600.00 |
$ 720.00 |
$ 864.00 |
$1,036.80 |
|
|
Expenses |
|
$ (200.00) |
$ (250.00) |
$ (312.50) |
$ (390.63) |
$ (488.28) |
|
|
Net cash flow |
$ (1,000.00) |
$ 300.00 |
$ 350.00 |
$ 407.50 |
$ 473.38 |
$ 548.52 |
|
|
IRR |
|
|
|
|
|
|
27% |
|
Capital Cost @0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discounting factor |
|
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
|
Discounted Cash flow |
|
$ 300.00 |
$ 350.00 |
$ 407.50 |
$ 473.38 |
$ 548.52 |
$ 2,079.39 |
|
Initial Investment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 1,000.00 |
|
Net Present Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 1,079.39 |
|
Capital Cost @2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discounting rate |
|
0.91 |
0.83 |
0.75 |
0.68 |
0.62 |
|
|
Discounted Cash flow |
|
$ 272.73 |
$ 289.26 |
$ 306.16 |
$ 323.32 |
$ 340.59 |
$ 1,532.05 |
|
Initial Investment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 1,000.00 |
|
Net Present Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 532.05 |
|
Capital Cost @5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discounting rate |
|
0.95 |
0.91 |
0.86 |
0.82 |
0.78 |
|
|
Discounted Cash flow |
|
$ 285.71 |
$ 317.46 |
$ 352.01 |
$ 389.45 |
$ 429.78 |
$ 1,774.41 |
|
Initial Investment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 1,000.00 |
|
Net Present Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 774.41 |
|
Capital Costs @ 7.5 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discounting rate |
|
0.93 |
0.87 |
0.80 |
0.75 |
0.70 |
|
|
discounted Cash flow |
|
$ 279.07 |
$ 302.87 |
$ 328.02 |
$ 354.46 |
$ 382.08 |
$ 1,646.50 |
|
Initial Investment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 1,000.00 |
|
Net Present Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 646.50 |
|
Capital costs @ 25% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discounting rate |
|
0.91 |
0.83 |
0.75 |
0.68 |
0.62 |
|
|
discounted Cash flow |
|
$ 272.73 |
$ 289.26 |
$ 306.16 |
$ 323.32 |
$ 340.59 |
$ 1,532.05 |
|
Initial Investment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 1,000.00 |
|
Net Present Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ 532.05 |
The table above shows the impact of the varying cost capital inflation on the amount of NPV and IRR of the project. In order to make this assessment the initial investment for the project is assumed to be $1000 and the revenue has been increased by 20% and the cost by 25%. The IRR of the project is 27% and the calculation shows that the NPV at the different levels of the capital costs inflation is positive.
It is seen that the net present value at the capital cost of 0% comes up to $1079.39. When the rate of CCI is 2.5%, the NPV comes to $ 532.05. At the rate of 5%, the NPV sums up to $774.41. When the rate comes goes up to 7.5% the NPV is seen to be $646.50. At the rate of 25%, the NPV is seen to be $532.05. Therefore, it can be said that the Net Present Value changes as the CCI changes and thereby the revenue from the changes in the oil and gas are different.
3 There are numerous numerical and graphical simulation analysis mechanisms that are utilized by various oil and gas industries that help them to aid to gain knowledge regarding the risks regarding the reservoir development. It is important to forecast the reserves and the resources that cross the principles between geoscientists and the oil and petroleum engineers (Li et al. 2014). It is the role of the petroleum engineers to carry out the reserve models efficiently so that they can be used for the planning and restricting the risks that are associated with the reservoir development. The resource and the reserve forecasts are significant in their own way and furthermore, the forecasts are undertaken as drivers and inputs for capital expenditure, production and cash flow frameworks. The various techniques include:
Volumetric Estimations
This process is the only medium that is available to evaluate the hydrocarbons in the place before establishing sufficient pressure and the manufacturing data to apply material stability mechanisms. The hydrocarbons that are recoverable are predicted from the in place and recovery feature that is predicted from the analogue set performance and the studies of simulation (Pyrcz and Deutsch 2014).
Thus, it is seen that this technique is actually utilized to analyze the hydrocarbons in place within the new pools and wells and in the new basins of petroleum. Volumetric estimates gives out a valuable monitoring on the predictions that are derived from the material stability and the fall in the evaluation methods.
Production Decline Analysis
The process of Production decline analysis is a fundamental mechanism exploited for estimating manufacturing from a pool or from a group of pools when is adequate manufacturing to institute a falling pattern as a role of cumulative production or time (Sun et al. 2014). The mechanism is more precise than the volumetric process when adequate information is available to initiate a dependable inclination and is pertinent to both gas and oil wells
However, production decline analysis is most suitable to manufacturing pools with well-founded patterns. It is frequently utilized to predict residual recoverable reservoirs for corporate analysis but it is even helpful for water flood and developed oil recovery act appraisal and in recognising production challenges and technical issues (Islam et al. 2016).
Material Balance Analysis
Material balance computations are generally used to address reservoir progress questions but the mechanism can aid with the understanding of the geometry of reservoir. Geophysical mapping and geological provides an suggestion of a pool’s orientation and shape but characteristically the assurance in the in-place quantity is not more except the reservoir and seismic rule is plentiful (Bai 2014). Equally, material balance discovers an increased deal about the capacity of a reservoir but nothing about its orientation and shape. The mixture of the two often enhances the perceptive and explanation of the parameters of the pool.
The material balance process explains the development of water, oil, gas and rock over a specific time when the reservoir is constructed. When liquid is isolated from a reservoir, pressure of the reservoir have a tendency to diminish and the outstanding liquids enlarge to jam the unique gap. Injection conditions, like gas storage or water flooding are managed by indulging the inoculation quantity as negative manufacturing.
Well Test Interpretation
Well testing, even known as Pressure Transient Analysis (PTA), is a authoritative mechanism for tank description. The following data can be revealed from well examinations
Permeability – The value gathered from the reservoir examination is much more constructive than from nucleus scrutiny, because it symbolizes the in-situ, efficient leakage aggregated over a vast distance like tens or hundreds of metres).
Skin– Several wells are either injured or stimulated, and this has an impact on the deliverability of the reservoir. The skin is a gauge of the conclusion efficiency of a reservoir. Positive skins (typically +1 to +20) stand for injury, while a negative skin (typically -1 to -6) symbolizes development (Bromhal et al. 2014).
Average reservoir pressure – This limitation, which is either computed unswervingly or extrapolates from well examination information, and is exploited in material balance computations for formulating hydrocarbons-in place.
Deliverability potential – The IPR or the AOF is exploited in predicting the production of a reservoir.
Rate Transient Analysis
While a well is manufacturing, a vast amount of data can be presumed about the reservoir or the well without looking to close up it up for the purpose of well examination (Bhadra et al. 2015). From the economic point of view, it is not seen what is available in the reservoir that is vital, but relatively what can be recovered. The industrial word for this gas that is discoverable is known as “Reserves.”.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Simulation are done to frame the possibilities of various outcomes in a method that cannot be estimated due to the interference of the variables that are random in nature. This simulation was titled after the spot of gambling in Monaco as the probability and the arbitrary end results are core to the technique of modelling. The process of undertaking the Monte Carlo Simulation is to construct probable movements of the prices of assets making use of appropriate model. This model is helpful for the estimation of the oil and gas production, which helps in the organizations to understand how much oil can be shared.
4: Increase in energy demand in the world is attributable from the Organization for economic Cooperation and development. This is so because of expanding population and strong economic growth that has led to increase in world energy use. The global energy consumption is strongly influenced by structural changes along with economic growth. Demand for energy grows rapidly as standard of living improves and development of country progresses (Bauer et al. 2016). It can be explained with the help of an example. Say, a country that is experiencing fast paced economic growth would have improved housing due to share of populace. For their construction, energy would be required.
There are two major trends that has been associated with increase in consumption of energy and this comprise of increase in per capita consumption and increase in population.
Consumption of higher energy also results from transportation appliances and equipment and growing capacity of both domestic and foreign market for producing the goods and services. Economic growth of the world over the last thirty years has been led by Non- OECD countries. Such economic growth has been accompanies by strong growth in demand of energy consumption. The energy demand of world has increased and important factor have been the high growth of economic expansion of non-OECD Asia. Some of the non-OECD regions have also seen a substantial increase in demand of energy consumption and the reason is mainly attributable to access to ample domestic resources and fast-paced growth in population (Ang and Su 2016).
Growth in GDP and energy:
(Source: Bp.com 2017)
There is more requirement of energy for increase in the growth of world economy and the reason for increase in extent of energy consumption is mitigated by reduction of intensity of energy. Comparing to past, the consumption of energy is expected to grow at lower pace. One of the largest market for growth of energy is China. Although toward the end of outlook, India is likely to overtake China. The dominant source of energy powering the world economy is oil and gas and they account for more than 85% of total energy supplies in the year 2015.
Renewable energy is the fastest growing energy with the incentives and policies of government that is promoting the usage of non-fossil energy source. Most of the world energy is provided by fossil fuels and 78% of the total world energy consumption is accountable for natural gas, liquid fuels and gas (Wang et al. 2014). Other liquid fuel and petroleum has remained the largest energy source despite the fact that their total share in the world marketed energy consumption has decreased.
There are various sectors that would drive annual; growth in demand of energy consumption and they are as follows:
- Growth in consumption of energy is driven due to demand for energy and feedstock from the chemical sectors. Growth in demand of energy from this sector would be double the rest of total demand at compounded annual growth rate of 1.8%.
- In terms of electricity type, electricity would be the clear winner primarily as a result of industry electrification and building in China and India. Meeting the growth would be led by 80% capacity that will be generated from solar and wind energy and shifting towards the long term renewable sources (Coady et al. 2015).
- Demand for oil and gas will continue to increase with a CAGR of around 1.2% and the oil and crude companies would not look beyond the anticipated growth in chemical sector.
- Retail businesses are driven by economic incentive of energy consumption. However, they are concerned about the increased oil and gas prices on their profit margin.
- There would be a change in domestic oil refining in United States due to increasing global warming and population, renewed interest in urbanization, growth of electric automobile industry and growth of high speed electronic telecommunication including the rampant use of personal computers and internet (Schandl et al.2016).
It is indicated as per projections that the demand for energy in developing countries will eventually overtake compared to industrialized countries. In order for countries to have sustainable energy future, it is required to have regulatory, economic and institutional framework with the help of which appropriate investment would be facilitated along with proper accounting for environmental and social externalities (Brizga et al. 2014).
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