Stat6003: Statistics For Financial Assessment Answer

1HAEA

Report Writing Assignment:

Task:

You are expected to submit a report that requires you to apply your knowledge from all Modules and draws links between the scenario and the learning resources. Furthermore, you are expected to incorporate feedback given to your short written assessments (assessment no.1) and feedback provided to your presentation (assessment no. 2) in your final report. Your answers should reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion
points of the Modules. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts covered during this course can be applied by you in a comprehensive manner. The report also asks you to apply critical thinking and analysis.

Detailed tasks
1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020

• Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the excel sheets for each country (you can also do a comparison analysis)
• Conduct a correlation analysis between sales development and: (i) advertisements, (ii) number of stores and (iii) the survey results
• Conduct a multi regression time series analysis and use the results to forecast the sales until 2020.
o Hint: You should use natural logs (ln) for your analysis as discussed in your assignment of Module 5.
o For your reasonable assumptions which are required for the forecasting, you should apply hypothesis testing techniques for the GDP, Prices and
Population developments.
For example, if you forecast a GDP growth of 3.5%, knowing the past GDP growth figures, is the forecast of 3.5% an acceptable growth figure for the forecast or should that Null hypothesis be rejected?

2. Marketplace Sweden – Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020
• Based on your analysis in part 1, which country (Industria, Federated Islands, Nokaragua) is closest related to Sweden? Justify your selection.
o Hint: Look at average GDP per capita statistics (GDP divided by Population) and Price Index.

• Once you have identified the country that is closet related to Sweden, use that country’s characteristics of the analysis undertaken in the first part to
estimate/forecast the potential sales for the Swedish market.
o Use the forecasts from the IMF to project GDP growth rates and a potential price index (CPI or Inflation rate) for the years 2016 to 2020.