Space Exploration: European Scientists Assessment Answer

1IFBC

Data Analytsis Assignment

Project 1 : Space Exploration

Description
A number of space probes left Earth for Planets in the past few years. One of the missions is estimated to cost £250m to £300m and it would become a European built probe on a spacecraft touching down on another planet. The aim is always simple – to find evidence of life, past or present, on another planet. The mission carries scientific instruments that will study the geology of planets and search for water under the surface. Research institutes throughout Europe have provided the instruments. A consortium of more than 20 companies from more than a dozen European countries and the USA built the spacecraft. The spacecraft will fly around the target planet for an entire planet year. Scientists are confident that if water is present on the Planet, the spacecraft with the probe will find it.

European scientists want the mission to:

1. map the composition of the surface at 100-m resolution
2. map the composition of the atmosphere and determine its global circulation
3. determine the structure of the sub-surface to a depth of a few kilometres
4. determine the effect of the atmosphere on the surface, and,
5. determine the interaction of the atmosphere with the solar wind

On landing, cameras on the probe’s robotic arm will take close-up images of soil and rocks to look for interesting specimens. The samples will be analysed for chemical signs of life using a package of instruments on the probe.

The Launch
The spacecraft carrying the probe would be launched from earth and placed on the right trajectory for the interplanetary voyage. If all goes well, the journey would take a few months.

Judgmental Forecasting

We are interested in the following Forecasts:

1). To what extend do you think objectives a-e will be achieved?

2). Do you think water will be found in?

3). Do you thing close-up images will be captured?

You are going to follow the process for Structures Analogies for producing your forecasts as in the following pages

Judgmental Forecasting with Structured Analogies

In the tables provided below, please describe any analogous project to the one described. Please include details on:

• the similarities and differences between your analogous project and the target projects.
• their source (e.g. your own experience, media reports, history, literature, etc.)
• a similarity rating between your analogous project and the target projects (0 = no similarity… 5 = similar… 10 = high similarity)
• the outcome of your analogous project (which of the outcomes a-e found at the bottom, is most similar, in terms of effectiveness, to the outcome of your analogy?)

Example analogy

Source __ Media __ Similarity rating __8__ OUTCOME:

Q1. To what extend think objectives have been achieved?

1. 0% – 20% [ ]  b. 21% – 40% [ ] c. 41% – 60% [V ]
2. 61% – 80% [ ] e. 81% – 100% [ ]

Q2. Was water found ?

Yes [ ] No [V]

Q3. Have close-up images been captured?

Yes [V] No [ ]

1. Your Analogies

Analogy 1

Q1. To what extend think objectives have been achieved?Source _____________ Similarity rating ______ OUTCOME:

1. 0% – 20% [ ]  b. 21% – 40% [ ] c. 41% – 60% [ ]
2. 61% – 80% [ ] e. 81% – 100% [ ]

Q2. Was water found ?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

Q3. Have close-up images been captured?

Yes [] No [ ]

Analogy 2

Q1. To what extend think objectives have been achieved?Source _____________ Similarity rating ______ OUTCOME:

1. 0% – 20% [ ]  b. 21% – 40% [ ] c. 41% – 60% [ ]
2. 61% – 80% [ ] e. 81% – 100% [ ]

Q2. Was water found ?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

Q3. Have close-up images been captured?

Yes [] No [ ]

Analogy 3

Q1. To what extend think objectives have been achieved?Source _____________ Similarity rating ______ OUTCOME:

1. 0% – 20% [ ]  b. 21% – 40% [ ] c. 41% – 60% [ ]
2. 61% – 80% [ ] e. 81% – 100% [ ]

Q2. Was water found ?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

Q3. Have close-up images been captured?

Yes [] No [ ]

Analogy 4

Q1. To what extend think objectives have been achieved?Source _____________ Similarity rating ______ OUTCOME:

1. 0% – 20% [ ]  b. 21% – 40% [ ] c. 41% – 60% [ ]
2. 61% – 80% [ ] e. 81% – 100% [ ]

Q2. Was water found ?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

Q3. Have close-up images been captured?

Yes [] No [ ]

if you need MORE analogies reprint this page

1. Your OWN Forecast

Q1. To what extend do you think objectives a-e will be achieved?

1. 0% – 20% [ ]  b. 21% – 40% [ ] c. 41% – 60% [ ]
2. 61% – 80% [ ] e. 81% – 100% [ ]

Q2. Do you think water will be found in?

Yes [ ] No [ ]

Q3. Do you thing close-up images will be captured?

Yes [] No [ ]

How confident you are about your Forecast in

   Q1[  ]%,

   Q2 [   ]% and,

   Q3[  ]%?

1. Questionnaire

1. Roughly, how long did you spend on this task?

{include the time spent reading the description and instructions} [__] mins.

1. How likely is it that taking more time would change your forecast?

{0 = almost no chance (1/100) … 10 = practically certain (99/100)} [__] 0-10.

1. If you knew that this case was from the UK, how likely would you be to change your forecast?

{0 = almost no chance (1/100) … 10 = practically certain (99/100)} [__] 0-10.

1. How many people did you discuss this forecasting problem with? [__] people.
2. Roughly, how many years experience do you have working in a project management (PM) issues setting? years.

1. Roughly, please rate 

– your experience with project management (PM). 

– your experience with projects similar to this one.  

–  your suitability for predicting the success of major projects.

1. If you were contracted to produce such a forecast  what process/process would you adopt?
2.     In what sort of time-scale?